All posts by MarketsMuse Staff Reporter

ETF News, Tech Talk

Bitcoin: Now Coming To a Trading Screen Near You?

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bitcoin  MarketsMuse Editor Note: On the heels of the recent announcement that the proposed Bitcoin ETF aka “Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust” with slated ticker symbol COIN is about to be bankable by ETF traders and investors, below extract courtesy of Traders Magazine Online News, July 15, 2014, written by Gregg Wirth

Bitcoin, the crypto-currency that initially became infamous as the tender of choice for drug traffickers and mercenaries, may be coming to a trading desk or institutional portfolio near you – and sooner than you think.

“2014 is going to be the year Bitcoin hits Wall Street,” said Barry Silbert, founder and CEO of SecondMarket, a capital-raising platform for private companies and investment funds. Indeed, there is a growing consensus in some corners of Wall Street and the buyside community that the $7.8 billion  Bitcoin industry is going to become the new, flashy darling of investors, with dedicated digital currency funds, venture capitalists and asset managers all chasing after those 12 million bitcoins currently in circulation.

“Digital currencies like Bitcoin are not going away,” Silbert explained. “And Wall Street and the regulators know this, they’ve studied how to deal with it, and now they are starting to understand its potential.” SecondMarket has gone heavy into the Bitcoin phenomenon, launching the Bitcoin Investment Trust, a $70 million open-ended trust that invests exclusively in bitcoins, as well as a dedicated desk of 10 traders who buy and sell bitcoins for the trust and other institutional clients. SecondMarket is also creating what it hopes to be the largest, best-capitalized and well-run Bitcoin exchange in the U.S., and is enlisting banks and Bitcoin-related firms to be exchange members. Continue reading →

People Profiles

Bulge Bracket Veteran Enlists With Veteran-Owned Boutique’s International Equities Execution Platform

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Mischler Financial Adds To International Equities Team;

Global Bank Trading Veteran Appointed to Senior Role for 24/6 Agency-Only Platform

Immediate News Release

Stamford, CT July 14, 2014—Mischler Financial Group (“MFG”), the securities industry’s oldest investment bank/institutional brokerage owned and operated by service-disabled veterans announced that Eric Michalisin, a close on 20-year sell-side industry veteran and a recognized specialist in international equities execution has joined the firm’s agency-only trading desk and has been appointed, Director, International Equities Sales/Trading. Mr. Michalisin will be based in the firm’s Stamford, CT office and work directly with Managing Director Rob Livio, who oversees the firm’s 24/6 international equities sales/trading platform.

michalisin
Eric Michalisin, Mischler Financial Group

During the 3 years immediately prior to joining Mischler, Mr. Michalisin was Director, International Equities for RBS Securities. During the 7 years prior, he was a senior member of the international equities desk for JP Morgan Chase. Mr. Michalisin began his sell-side career in 1996 as a Far East equities sales/trading specialist for Robert Fleming, Inc and remained with predecessor firm Jardine Fleming Securities throughout 2001.

Noted Joe Digiammo, Mischler’s global head of equities, “Eric’s major firm background, coupled with his unique insight to local market trading, as well as best execution for US-listed ADRs provides our institutional clients with yet another highly-experienced touch-point for those seeking to navigate global equities markets on a 24/6 basis.”

For additional information, please visit the entire news release published today via this link to the Mischler Financial Group website

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

A Rareview Macro View: “There’s NO Gold in Them Thar Hills”

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It was in early 1849 that the director of the Mint at Dahlonega, Dr. M. F. Stephenson spoke from the steps of the mint building in a futile attempt to convince the miners to remain in Georgia to mine rather than to flock to California to chase what might be an impossible dream. “There’s gold in them thar hills, boys,” he shouted as he pointed at the hills surrounding Dahlonega.   

Below commentary is courtesy of today’s a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”

 

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Gold is showing the largest negative risk-adjusted return across regions and assets.

The pre-market price in SPDR Gold Shares (symbol: GLD) is ~126.40. The volume-weighted-average-price (VWAP) from June 19th until last Friday’s close is 127.0392.

We use June 19th as the starting point because that is when the IRAQ-ISIS conflict registered its loudest decibel level and Brent Crude Oil made its high and Gold broke above the April-May period.

The technical support levels are illustrated below but the first one was breached so far on an intra-day basis. A move closer to 1300 would suggest longs just became trapped. Continue reading →

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

Markets Mauled Today: A Rareview Macro-Strategy View

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Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Below excerpt courtesy this a.m.’s edition of macro-strategy newsletter “Sight Beyond Sight”

Today is the first time in recent memory that investors are waking up to a meaningful gap down in US equity index futures.

By virtue of the fact that S&P 500 futures were down ~1.0% at one point this morning, the 57-day streak with no 1% up/down move in the index level has finally been broken today and that is clearly a talking point.

The other interesting observation for US equity participants is that Russell 2000 futures (symbol: RTAU4) are currently down -2.2%. That is much more than the German DAX -1.6%) and commensurate with the weakness in the Spanish IBEX (-2.5%) and Italian MIB (-2.15%) indices.

Given that investor sentiment is also very fragile at the moment, and despite this being a very immature approach to investing and nearly always misguided, the fact is a 2-3% move lower in the index always triggers calls for a larger 7-10% correction.

Our view is different. Continue reading →

Global Macro Strategy

Rareview’s Macro-Strategist: 3-Day Trickle Down Rule in Play; Pros Reduce Risk Exposure

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Below is the lead-in to this morning’s edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”; the ‘read more’ link below provides additional extracts that caught the eye of more than a few folks who follow macro-strategy themes..

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Three Day Trickle Down Rule in Play…This is Not Same as Late March Correction

• Conundrum Across Asset Classes Leads to Risk Reduction
• Extra Focus on Front End of Interest Rate Curve and the Left Coast Investor
• Underbelly of Professionals Too Weak…Skepticism Suggest Weakness is Bought

Overnight

We apologies in advance for the deviation away from our normal humility level but sometimes frustration get the better of us.

The definition of the word Conundrum is: a confusing and difficult problem or question. While just a handful of examples, and because no one has a good explanation, these conundrums are leading professionals to reduce exposure levels for a third day in a row.

Brent Crude Oil is now down for eight straight days (during which it has lost ~5%) and it’s traded down in 12 out of the last 14 days. It is a similar trend in WTI Crude Oil which is down 10 out of the last 12 days. However, contrary to what one would expect Airline stocks are significantly lower in price and the correlation between Gold-to-Oil has not swung back to being negative. In fact, Gold is showing the largest risk-adjusted return and WTI Crude Oil is showing the largest negative risk-adjusted return in Commodities and the rejection so far of the profile (i.e. Gold dropped -10% over 45-days) that followed the peak in the Ukraine-Russia conflict has Gold bears nervous, including us who remain short it via a longer dated option structure.

The darling of Emerging Markets, India SENSEX is -2.5% over the last two days but the Dollar-Rupee (USD/INR) is lower by 41 basis points (i.e. weaker USD and stronger INR). Historically, in bouts of risk reduction both SENSEX and Rupee would weaken in tandem. Continue reading →

ETF News, Tech Talk

Finra Steps Up Investigation Of Broker-Dealer Order Routing Rebate Schemes; Conflict of Interest Endemic to Current Market Structure

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NYSE CEO Says “Not Good” while appearing before Senate on the topic of equities market structure and Maker-Taker Rebate Schemes.

Bowing to increasing pressure from regulators, law makers and law enforcement officials, Finra, the securities industry “watchdog” has launched its own probe into how retail brokers route customer orders to exchanges, according to recent reporting by the Wall Street Journal’s Scott Patterson.  In particular, through the use of “sweep letters” targeting various broker-dealers, Finra is purportedly focused on whether rebates associated with schemes that brokers receive when directing their orders to specific venues is a violation of conflict of interest rules, given that customers presume they are receiving best price execution when in fact, they often do not.

MarketsMuse, the securities industry blog that has long reported about payment-for-order-flow and the unsavory practice in which customer orders are “sold” by custodians and prime brokers to “preferenced liquidity providers,” who then trade against those customers and profit from price aberrations between multiple exchange venues and dark pools, takes pride in pioneering the coverage of this topic.

Now that main stream media journalists are beginning to “get it”,  a growing number of those following this story hope that WSJ’s Patterson and other journalists will shine light on the even more unsavory practice in which these same brokers imposing egregious fees on customers who wish to “step out” aka “trade away” and direct their orders to agency-only execution firms, whose role as agent is to objectively canvass the assortment of marketplaces and market-makers in order to secure truly better price executions for their institutional and investment advisory clients. Continue reading →

ETF News, People Profiles

Go With The Flow? ETF Execution Expert Says This…

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Agency-Execution firm WallachBeth Capital’s Andy McOrmond, a recognized expert in ETF order execution for leading investment managers and RIAs appearing on CNBC with his [personal] thoughts as to whether  now is, or is not the time to “go with the flow.”

Talking points: SPY v. VYM…$HEDJ and more..  Click on the image below to launch the video clip courtesy of our friends over at CNBC.

mcormond
WallachBeth Capital’s Andy McOrmond on CNBC
ETF News, People Profiles

July 4 Reading Material for ETF’ers : A Closer Look at Wall Street

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MarketsMuse Editor Note: Below excerpt courtesy of ETF Industry Icon Ron Delegge from his best selling Gents with No Cents is a great teaser for any and all wing-tip types who are looking for a fun read while enjoying the July 4 holiday weekend. Ron’s day job includes publishing the ETF Guide and providing The Portfolio Report Card. (see below for links!)

gents with no centsPreserved deep within a corporation’s bowels is an extraordinary creature unlike any other — the corporate executive. Before you’ve even started your day, he has already been on a three-hour conference call with Asia about a big merger. Before that, he was yelling at Europe while you were tucking in the kids. Most people sleep when they sleep, but he works. The corporate executive is not a lazy man.

In our examination of corporate executives, we must remember to never judge. We must also remember that a stereotype is not a stereotype, especially if it’s true. Continue reading →

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

Black Gold v. Yellow Metal: Macro-Strategy Perspective

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As if it were a segment in “Orange is the New Black,” the price correlation between Crude Oil (aka Black Gold) and the Yellow Metal continues to swing like a chandelier in a windy mansion. Below extract courtesy of Neil Azous, from today’s a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight summarizes the current correlation in a crisp way…

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

There are two assets being watched closely right now – Brent Crude Oil and the Euro Exchange Rate.

Firstly, Brent Crude Oil is showing the largest negative risk-adjusted return in Commodities. This morning, the “barrel” has broken through yesterday’s low and overall has now retraced over 50% of the Iraq/ISIS move higher seen in June. Below is a regression analysis between Brent Crude Oil and Gold for three time periods related to Iraq/ISIS: Before, Height, and Current.

Gold was trading at its lower point on June 2nd and the correlation (i.e. red asterisk on chart) to Brent Crude Oil was negative. On June 19th, the correlation was the most positive when Brent Crude Oil was at its highest level. Today, the correlation is on the cusp of swinging back to negative territory. We highlight this because the same pattern has been seen before, with the height on March 14th and after the Ukraine-Russia crisis. And what happened next? Gold dropped by -10% over the next 45 days.

By the way, it was reported that assets in the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) rose +1.4% to 796.39 metric tons in the two sessions through yesterday. To put that in context, that is the largest two-day gain since November 2011 and it is just one example of the new found retail length in Gold. The other was in CFTC futures positioning which professionals use to gain exposure. Continue reading →

Global Macro Strategy

Macro-Strategist Says: Funeral Services for Volatility Premature; Second Half Different than First

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Below excerpt courtesy of this a.m.’s edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight” macro-strategy newsletter.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

“….We start the second half of 2014 well aware that over the last few years the second half of the year has had little resemblance to the first. Over the last three years, for example, we saw major changes from the first half to the second.

• 2013: Taper/no taper whipsaw in US Treasuries and Emerging Market Foreign Exchange
• 2012: Draghi “Do Whatever it Takes” and Japanese PM Abe’s Three Arrows
• 2011: EU debt crisis and US ratings downgrade

Therefore, we remain very open to the argument that something no one is thinking about could surprise the markets. We don’t know what that might be, and we not sure anyone else does either. By definition, it will be something way off the radar right now.

Someone asked us yesterday what our best fundamental reason is for continued US equity strength and low volatility.

Our answer is that conventional wisdom argues that the market is six months forward-looking. Six months from today is the first day of 2015. The consensus S&P 500 operating EPS for 2014 is $119 and with the last price ~1960 the P/E is ~16.5x. The EPS consensus for 2015 is $133. If the conventional wisdom is correct, in that the market is a discounting mechanism six months in advance, that means the P/E just dropped below 15 (i.e. SPX last price 1960 / 2015 EPS 133 = 14.7x) starting today. This does not take into consideration that consensus expectations are too high for next year or that this year could still be revised lower. Even so, the key point is that the argument that the market is overvalued just became weaker.

This is important to recognize as volatility is first and foremost driven by earnings. So unless there is meaningful deterioration at the corporate operating performance level, volatility can stay suppressed as investors remain very conditioned to geopolitical or exogenous shocks, and they don’t have much impact on the market. Continue reading →

ETF News

Want GoPro? Go to These ETFs..

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marketwatchCourtesy of Benzinga via MarketWatch

The hotly-anticipated initial public offering of GoPro GPRO +8.52% this week is one of the largest consumer electronics debuts of the decade.

Shares surged more than 30 percent on Thursday from its IPO opening price of $24 per share, as the company raised $427 million in cash.

The initial success of GoPro may soon pave the way for entry into a number of exchange-traded funds in the near future as well.

The most likely ETF to get the first shot at adding this high definition video maker is the Renaissance IPO ETF IPO +0.09% . This fund allows new publicly-traded companies to be added to its index on the fifth day of trading, and subsequently removes any stocks that have more than two years of history.  Continue reading →

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy, Tech Talk

Wall St Execs Do The Flip-Flop While Being Grilled In Washington; Payment For Order Flow Exposed

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wsl

Conflict of Interest is Of Interest to Senate Panel Members “just learning about” industry-rampant Payment For Order Flow Schemes . Market Structure To Be Re-Structured?

Excerpts below courtesy of The Wall Street Letter’s on the spot coverage of the U.S. Senate investigation of Wall Street’s affection for high-frequency trading aka HFT, and with specific focus on order routing and execution practices, particularly with regard to kick-back inspired payment for order flow schemes, “maker-taker” rebate schemes and likely conflict-of-interest issues within the context of brokers such as Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade (among others) failing to ensure so-called “best execution,” a role that necessarily precludes receiving payment for directing customer orders to any counter-party other than the one offering the best available price for that sized order at that point in time.

Here’s the WSL story as of 8 pm EST on the first day of testimony from members of the securities industry; no surprise to note certain executives take the ‘walk backwards’ and no longer defending the practices that have enriched their business models:

Market participants commenting in front of Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations hearing into ‘Conflicts of Interest, Investor Loss of Confidence, and High Speed Trading in U.S. Stock Markets’ noted that the SEC needs to re-examine or dismiss the maker taker rule and subsequent rebates as they’ve harmed consumer confidence and efforts to provide best execution.

Tom Farley, president of NYSE, noted to Senators Carl Levin, John McCain, and Ron Johnson that the maker taker model has led to a proliferation of sell-side broker dealers executing orders on exchanges that are offering induced rebates to create liquidity, rather than sending orders that offer the best execution. Continue reading →

Global Macro Strategy

Fretting About The Fed’s Plan to Impose Exit Fees On Bond Funds

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MarketsMuse Editor Note: Below excerpt from this a.m.’s edition of macro-strategy newsletter Sight Beyond Sight..

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

While commentators largely ignored the Financial Times article released yesterday it garnered a fair amount of attention by investors in our circle. The article stated that “Federal Reserve officials have discussed imposing exit fees on bond funds to avert a potential run by investors, underlining regulators’ concern about the vulnerability of the $10tn corporate bond market.”

Here is one interpretation on why this trial balloon was sent out. Please forgive our attempt at satire; we mean to inform, and hopefully amuse, not insult.

Rick at Blackrock:  Hi Lloyd. Our “Yellen Index” is flashing imminent Fed tightening. We can’t tell you the inputs but this is our internally used proprietary index and is made up of the economic statistics she most favors and right now it is saying the Fed should already be tightening.” (FT Article)

Lloyd at GS:  So what does that mean to me Rick? We are an M&A and asset management shop now.

Rick at Blackrock:  Whatever helps you sleep at night, Lloyd. I need a bid on a 16 billion corporate bond portfolio ASAP.

Lloyd at GS:  We are not in that business anymore due to new capital requirements, balance sheet constraints and regulation.

Rick at Blackrock:  Lloyd, we go back a long-time and we pay your firm nine figures per year. I need a bid now.

Lloyd at GS:  What do you think this is Rick? The 2004 interest cycle? Send over a list and we will work it on an agency basis.

Rick at Blackrock:  Screw you Lloyd. I am calling my friends at Bank of America.

One hour later and a repeat of the same call… Continue reading →

ETF News

HFT Chapter 3: U.S. Senate To Hear About Payment-For-Order-Flow, Conflicts of Interest and Best Execution

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MarketsMuse Editor Note: Finally, the topic of payment for order flow, the questionable practice in which large brokerage firms literally sell their customers’ orders to “preferenced liquidity providers”, who in turn execute those orders by trading against those customers orders ( using arbitrage strategies that effectively guarantee a trading profit with no risk) will now be scrutinized by the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations in hearings scheduled for this morning.

The first paragraph of this morning’s NY Times story by William Alden regarding today’s Senate hearings frames the issue nicely: “..To the average investor with a brokerage account, the process of buying and selling shares of stock seems straightforward. But the back end of these systems, governing how billions of shares are traded, remains opaque to many customers…Behind the sleek trading interfaces of brokerage firms like TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab and Merrill Lynch lie a web of business relationships with relatively obscure firms that make trades happen..”

MarketsMuse has spotlighted this issue repeatedly over the past several years, including citing long-time trading industry veterans who have lamented (albeit anonymously) that the notion of selling customer orders is a practice that not only reeks of conflict of interest, it is an anathema to those who embrace the concept of best execution. Their request for anonymity has been driven less by “not authorized to speak on behalf of the firm” and more by a common fear of “being put in the penalty box” by large retail brokerage firms who embrace the practice of double-dipping (charging a commission to a customer while also receiving a kickback from designated liquidity providers) simply because these firm deliver the bulk of orders to Wall Street trading desks for execution.

Throughout the same period that this publication has profiled the topic, we have repeatedly encouraged leading business news journalists from major outlets to bring this story to the forefront. In every instance other than one, journalists and editors have suggested the topic is “too complex for our readers” and many have indicated that its a story that their “major advertisers (the industry’s largest retail brokerage firms and ‘custodians’) would be offended by.”

NY Times reporter William Alden described the issue in a manner that is perfectly clear and simple to comprehend; whether the issue of “conflict of interest” is clear enough or simple enough for U.S. Senators to grasp is a completely different story.

The following extracts from Alden’s reporting summarize the issue brilliantly; link to the full article is below: Continue reading →

ETF News

Volatility Bets and ETNs: Be Careful What You Bet On

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wsjlogoExtract courtesy of Spencer Jakab, Wall St. Journal. Full article available via clicking on WSJ logo on left side..

“..Now that volatility has emerged not only as a concept but an investment in its own right, there probably is no putting the genie back in the bottle. And while portfolio managers largely welcome the products, the droves of speculators drawn to VIX notes may be in for a wilder ride than they realize…”

The latest big worry to hit markets is an unusual one: calm. With stock prices high and various gauges of risk low, investors appear to have thrown caution to the wind.

That isn’t entirely true, though. Exchange-traded notes that profit handsomely from market-shaking events have boomed since the financial crisis. But they have two big shortcomings: They may not work as designed in another financial crisis since their value depends on the bank backing them. And due to the way the products work, anyone holding these for the long term will inevitably see their value erode. Continue reading →

Global Macro Strategy

Risk OFF : A Macro Strategy Rare View From Rareview Macro

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Below extract courtesy of Neil Azous, founder of Rareview Macro LLC and publisher of Sight Beyond Sight, the macro-strategy newsletter.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Professionals Actually Sensitive to Weaker Risk Assets Over The Next Few Days

• Model Portfolio Trade: Short NASDAQ
• Partial Switch ofFunding Leg of Carry Trade Impacting Risk Assets
• China MSCI A-share inclusion update, CNY Observation, & Data Surprise
• Our Core Position – Short EUR/NOK – Gets Added Boost from Paid Forecaster
• Gold & Real Rates
• Eric Cantor

Model Portfolio

The model portfolio sold short 132 (~10mm) NASDAQ futures (symbol: NQM4) at 3788.25. This is the first time in a long while that we have added directional downside exposure. We are open to adding to this position but would also not hesitate to remove it quickly if it turns out to be wrong. Continue reading →

Global Macro Strategy

Trading Professionals Disgusted By Today’s Data: A Rareview Macro Musing

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Below extract from this a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight…

“….The key objective we laid out at the end of April has, we are pleased to say, now materialized – don’t sell in May and go away,  as the S&P 500 will trade higher to a range of 1920-1950. What is needed now for our forecasts to be fulfilled completely is a trend change in the US Dollar and greater evidence that the CAPEX profile will accelerate.

On the margin this morning’s US employment data did two things:

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

1. It mitigated some degree of the concern at the Federal Reserve about the slack in the labor market.

2. It strengthened the intermediate-term argument that a trend change in the Euro-Dollar (EUR/USD) is underway following the actions announced by Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday.
Many with a short-term mindset are focused on price levels or technicals that force people to adjust risk. The Euro exchange rate above 1.37 or Gold above 1258, are two obvious examples.

What we would highlight is that neither today’s data nor yesterday’s actions by the ECB portend to a correction in risk assets. This is primarily because both events do not strengthen the bear argument that the weak data in the first quarter has bled hard into the second quarter growth profile.

To access the entire newsletter, please visit Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

The Anger Indicator: A Rareview

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Below extract courtesy of this a.m.’s edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight..(Re-published with permission from Neil Azous)

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Here is an aggregation of the various statistics either sent to us from subscribers or we came across during our readings this weekend.

1.  Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIG):  Apple (AAPL), Exxon and Microsoft have the heaviest weighting in the MSCI Kokusai Index; ~87% of GPIF’s foreign stock holdings follow this benchmark. (Source:  Eurofaultlines)

2.  As far as we can tell the degree of these inflows have not yet been widely observed by other paid forecasters on the Street. EM Portfolio Inflows Reach New High In May: Our EM portfolio flows tracker indicates that portfolio inflows to emerging economies continued their upward trend of the last several months, reaching the highest level since September 2012, when the Fed launched QE3 (Chart 1). In May, EMs are estimated to have received $45 billion in portfolio inflows from global investors, up from $28 billion in April and $27 billion in March. The May figure reflects $28 billion going into EM bond markets (portfolio debt flows,Chart 2) and $17 billion into EM stock markets (portfolio equity flows, Chart 3). (Source: Institute of International Finance) Report

3.  This week the S&P 500 will surpass the 1995-96 record for number of consecutive days in which the index has traded above its 200-day moving average.

4.  SPY closed above its upper Bollinger 5 days in a row through Friday. SPY has only closed above its upper Bollinger 4 days in a row 4 times since 2009. (Source: Fat Pitch)

5.  Relative Strength Indicators (RSI)

a.  The S&P 500 (SPY) 9-day RSI is over 70 = Overbought

b.  The NASDAQ (NDX) 9-day RSI is 74 and AAPL’s is 80 = Overbought

c.  The Transports (IYT) 9-day RSI is over 77 = Overbought

d.  The Semiconductors SOX) 9-day RSI is over 70 = Overbought

6.  Since 1950, the DJIA has lost -1.9% and SPX -2.1% in June. The last 20 years have been even weaker. Moreover, the SPX has been down in 11 of the last 16 mid-term elections Junes (Source: Stock Traders Almanac).

7.  The VIX has closed below 12 for five straight days, the longest streak at that level since 2007 (Source:  Volatility Trader) Continue reading →