Tag Archives: ndx

The Anger Indicator: A Rareview

Below extract courtesy of this a.m.’s edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight..(Re-published with permission from Neil Azous)

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Here is an aggregation of the various statistics either sent to us from subscribers or we came across during our readings this weekend.

1.  Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIG):  Apple (AAPL), Exxon and Microsoft have the heaviest weighting in the MSCI Kokusai Index; ~87% of GPIF’s foreign stock holdings follow this benchmark. (Source:  Eurofaultlines)

2.  As far as we can tell the degree of these inflows have not yet been widely observed by other paid forecasters on the Street. EM Portfolio Inflows Reach New High In May: Our EM portfolio flows tracker indicates that portfolio inflows to emerging economies continued their upward trend of the last several months, reaching the highest level since September 2012, when the Fed launched QE3 (Chart 1). In May, EMs are estimated to have received $45 billion in portfolio inflows from global investors, up from $28 billion in April and $27 billion in March. The May figure reflects $28 billion going into EM bond markets (portfolio debt flows,Chart 2) and $17 billion into EM stock markets (portfolio equity flows, Chart 3). (Source: Institute of International Finance) Report

3.  This week the S&P 500 will surpass the 1995-96 record for number of consecutive days in which the index has traded above its 200-day moving average.

4.  SPY closed above its upper Bollinger 5 days in a row through Friday. SPY has only closed above its upper Bollinger 4 days in a row 4 times since 2009. (Source: Fat Pitch)

5.  Relative Strength Indicators (RSI)

a.  The S&P 500 (SPY) 9-day RSI is over 70 = Overbought

b.  The NASDAQ (NDX) 9-day RSI is 74 and AAPL’s is 80 = Overbought

c.  The Transports (IYT) 9-day RSI is over 77 = Overbought

d.  The Semiconductors SOX) 9-day RSI is over 70 = Overbought

6.  Since 1950, the DJIA has lost -1.9% and SPX -2.1% in June. The last 20 years have been even weaker. Moreover, the SPX has been down in 11 of the last 16 mid-term elections Junes (Source: Stock Traders Almanac).

7.  The VIX has closed below 12 for five straight days, the longest streak at that level since 2007 (Source:  Volatility Trader) Continue reading

Glass Half Full of Apple (AAPL) Juice : ETF Observation

We took the liberty of scraping an interesting note from this a.m.’s  Notes from the WallachBeth ETF Desk :

“…On to Apple: Today will sure set a new tone and a new era for Apple lovers and haters; the iPad 3 (aka iPad) has been released, praised and torn down. The company is announcing a dividend and share buyback program. This is what we know.  I am a big fan of Apple products and culture, and while that typically keeps me from being bearish on the stock , here is what you may not know, or, may not be paying attention to:  the overwhelming success of AAPL could lead to a short term bearish event in the stock: a special rebalance.

AAPL is currently >18.5% of the weight in NDX. If that weight goes over 24%, a special NDX rebalance could be triggered. Additionally, if the sum weight of all members with a weight over 4.5% is greater than 48% [currently ~42.5%], a special rebalance could be triggered. So, while each event in itself has a certain probability, we could be only one member away from reaching the threshold.

If you had to set alerts on your monitor, I would set them for those three and watch their weights. ..”

Chris Hempstead, Head of ETF Trading, WallachBeth Capital