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ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

Macro Musing: Brother, Can You Spare A Dollar? $DXY A Rareview Sight Beyond Sight

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Below courtesy of extract from a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”…   MarketsMuse Editor note: notwithstanding the ‘caveat’ immediately below re: focus on FX, for those who are chewing on Apple ($APPL), MarketsMuse editorial team recommends a full read of below

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

An astute friend and mentor once said: “Deciphering the tea leaves of macro is an art developed over time, not purchased in an online tutorial”. In our humble opinion, today’s edition of Sight Beyond Sight is a good example of reading the tea leaves.

The majority of today’s note is related to Foreign Exchange but has implications across all assets going forward. If you are not a dedicated FX investor and not interested in making or saving money read no further.

On a risk-adjusted return basis the overall trading ranges across regions and asset classes are narrower than normal. This is prime example of indecision or neutrality after a strong relief rally in risk assets, especially in Equities.

The one outlier is the US Dollar, which continues its march higher towards regaining its status as an “asset” currency once again. The US Dollar is stronger relative to 9 of the 10 currencies in the G10.

The Dollar-Yen (USD/JPY) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) both broke key technical levels overnight – the Yen as a result of Japan’s trade deficit widening by more than expected, on an unexpected rebound in imports, and the Kiwi because of another disappointing milk auction that will weaken the country’s Terms of Trade, as well as negative Producer Price Index (PPI) data, and a growth downgrade by its Treasury yesterday.  Continue reading →

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

The Anger Indicator: A Rareview

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Below extract courtesy of this a.m.’s edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight..(Re-published with permission from Neil Azous)

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Here is an aggregation of the various statistics either sent to us from subscribers or we came across during our readings this weekend.

1.  Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIG):  Apple (AAPL), Exxon and Microsoft have the heaviest weighting in the MSCI Kokusai Index; ~87% of GPIF’s foreign stock holdings follow this benchmark. (Source:  Eurofaultlines)

2.  As far as we can tell the degree of these inflows have not yet been widely observed by other paid forecasters on the Street. EM Portfolio Inflows Reach New High In May: Our EM portfolio flows tracker indicates that portfolio inflows to emerging economies continued their upward trend of the last several months, reaching the highest level since September 2012, when the Fed launched QE3 (Chart 1). In May, EMs are estimated to have received $45 billion in portfolio inflows from global investors, up from $28 billion in April and $27 billion in March. The May figure reflects $28 billion going into EM bond markets (portfolio debt flows,Chart 2) and $17 billion into EM stock markets (portfolio equity flows, Chart 3). (Source: Institute of International Finance) Report

3.  This week the S&P 500 will surpass the 1995-96 record for number of consecutive days in which the index has traded above its 200-day moving average.

4.  SPY closed above its upper Bollinger 5 days in a row through Friday. SPY has only closed above its upper Bollinger 4 days in a row 4 times since 2009. (Source: Fat Pitch)

5.  Relative Strength Indicators (RSI)

a.  The S&P 500 (SPY) 9-day RSI is over 70 = Overbought

b.  The NASDAQ (NDX) 9-day RSI is 74 and AAPL’s is 80 = Overbought

c.  The Transports (IYT) 9-day RSI is over 77 = Overbought

d.  The Semiconductors SOX) 9-day RSI is over 70 = Overbought

6.  Since 1950, the DJIA has lost -1.9% and SPX -2.1% in June. The last 20 years have been even weaker. Moreover, the SPX has been down in 11 of the last 16 mid-term elections Junes (Source: Stock Traders Almanac).

7.  The VIX has closed below 12 for five straight days, the longest streak at that level since 2007 (Source:  Volatility Trader) Continue reading →