Tag Archives: euro exchange rate

Investors Reach For Euro ETFs as the US Dollar Recovers

MarketMuse update courtesy of MarketWatch’s 12 March article, “Dollar surge has investors scrambling for a piece of this European ETF”. From the National Swiss Bank’s huge announcement in January to Greece’s continued demise, the European market has seen better days. While the US market continues to recover, the US dollar has almost completely recovered to the being equivalent with the Euro which is making investor grab at Euro ETFs. 

Back in 2008, $1.60 bought one euro EURUSD, -1.10% Fast forward to today, and the U.S. dollar is surging toward parity with the hobbled currency. Just a few more ticks to go.

Of course, the huge currency shake-up is bad news for U.S. exporters but it’s great for investors in the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity fund HEDJ, +0.19% And they are throwing gobs of money at it. Read: 4 stock plays that are attracting investor dollars this year.

In the past year alone, $12 billion has flowed into the fund, a more than tenfold increase. The ETF is now the biggest covering Europe with almost $14 billion in assets, according to ETF Database. That’s enough to displace the Vanguard FTSE Europe giant VGK, -0.85% as the region’s top dog.

Olly Ludwig, managing editor for ETF.com, points out that the dollar’s rise has turned a neutral investment into a world beater.

“There’s an elegant mirror-like quality to the chart that isolates the currency factor rather cleanly,” Ludwig said. “Were it not for the currency hedge, HEDJ would be about flat.”

Investors have obviously been taking notice, and currency-hedged ETFs, in general, have seen spikes in asset growth. Ludwig pointed out that, on Monday alone, HEDJ and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity fund DXJ, -0.39% combined to attract $1 billion. In a single day.

For the entire article from MarketWatch, click here.

Black Gold v. Yellow Metal: Macro-Strategy Perspective

As if it were a segment in “Orange is the New Black,” the price correlation between Crude Oil (aka Black Gold) and the Yellow Metal continues to swing like a chandelier in a windy mansion. Below extract courtesy of Neil Azous, from today’s a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight summarizes the current correlation in a crisp way…

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

There are two assets being watched closely right now – Brent Crude Oil and the Euro Exchange Rate.

Firstly, Brent Crude Oil is showing the largest negative risk-adjusted return in Commodities. This morning, the “barrel” has broken through yesterday’s low and overall has now retraced over 50% of the Iraq/ISIS move higher seen in June. Below is a regression analysis between Brent Crude Oil and Gold for three time periods related to Iraq/ISIS: Before, Height, and Current.

Gold was trading at its lower point on June 2nd and the correlation (i.e. red asterisk on chart) to Brent Crude Oil was negative. On June 19th, the correlation was the most positive when Brent Crude Oil was at its highest level. Today, the correlation is on the cusp of swinging back to negative territory. We highlight this because the same pattern has been seen before, with the height on March 14th and after the Ukraine-Russia crisis. And what happened next? Gold dropped by -10% over the next 45 days.

By the way, it was reported that assets in the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) rose +1.4% to 796.39 metric tons in the two sessions through yesterday. To put that in context, that is the largest two-day gain since November 2011 and it is just one example of the new found retail length in Gold. The other was in CFTC futures positioning which professionals use to gain exposure. Continue reading