Tag Archives: iwm

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

A Rareview View: Small vs. Large Caps: $SPY/$IWM

Leave a comment

Below is excerpt courtesy of 07.29 edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”

Small vs. Large Caps

Below are two charts of the ratio of the S&P 500 (symbol: SPY) to the Russell 2000 (symbol: IWM).

The first chart shows the performance of the ratio (i.e. long SPY vs. short IWM) on the top each time the relative strength index (i.e. 14-day RSI) reaches ~70. This ratio is currently overbought.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Going back to 2009 there have been ~10 points in time where the RSI reached ~70 (i.e. overbought) using the standard 14-day period. The average gain in the ratio is ~7.7% vs. the current gain at 6.6% off the July 2014 low.

The second chart shows the Fibonacci retracement levels following the GFC. The 61.8% FIB level is 1.2%. That happens to coincide with the average gain (i.e. ~7.7%) of the last 10 times that coincided with a ~70 RSI.

Courtesy of Rareview Macro's Sight Beyond Sight 07.29
Courtesy of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight 07.29

We have placed an order to buy $20 million of IWM and sell short $20mm of SPY at this 61.8% retracement level. Out stop is the 76.4% retracement level which is ~2.7% above the 61.8% retracement level. That would equate to a loss of ~$540k or ~50 basis points of the NAV. As a reminder, we refer to 50 basis points as one unit of risk.

Continue reading →

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

Markets Mauled Today: A Rareview Macro-Strategy View

Leave a comment
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Below excerpt courtesy this a.m.’s edition of macro-strategy newsletter “Sight Beyond Sight”

Today is the first time in recent memory that investors are waking up to a meaningful gap down in US equity index futures.

By virtue of the fact that S&P 500 futures were down ~1.0% at one point this morning, the 57-day streak with no 1% up/down move in the index level has finally been broken today and that is clearly a talking point.

The other interesting observation for US equity participants is that Russell 2000 futures (symbol: RTAU4) are currently down -2.2%. That is much more than the German DAX -1.6%) and commensurate with the weakness in the Spanish IBEX (-2.5%) and Italian MIB (-2.15%) indices.

Given that investor sentiment is also very fragile at the moment, and despite this being a very immature approach to investing and nearly always misguided, the fact is a 2-3% move lower in the index always triggers calls for a larger 7-10% correction.

Our view is different. Continue reading →

ETF News, Global Macro Strategy

Macro-Strategist Rareview: Pause in Mean Reversion

Leave a comment

rareview sbs logo Below excerpt courtesy of this a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”
“..The call today by the professional community for a retracement of the recent weakness in Equities is very loud…

This viewpoint disregards the fact that S&P 500 futures are already 2.5% higher than Monday’s intra-day low. The key point being is that with the last price in index futures at ~1848 the market is right back at the 50% retracement of the April high (~1892) and low (~1803).

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

In our view this thought process misses the point. The real takeaway is that after weeks of instability many are finally resigned to a pause in the mean reversion of last year’s strategies. This also includes a contraction in the very high intra-day volatility. Meaning, the peak-to-trough index ranges should narrow into option expiration.

While we do not fully agree with the shift in sentiment we are mindful that the price action argues in favor of a retracement in certain strategies and we will adjust some positioning in the model portfolio to be prudent..

Firstly, the model portfolio pre-market closed out the entire short Small Cap (IWM) and long Large Cap (SPY) relative value strategy. We covered the IWM short for 112.22 and sold the SPY long at 185.36. While we still believe this is a great intermediate-term theme the fact is that we never thought we would be able to generate more than 5% of outperformance this quickly relative to when we deployed the strategy on March 19th. We will look to re-initiate this position in the near future if it were to retrace 3-4%.

Continue reading →

Global Macro Strategy

Top Macro-Strategist Says “Now Negative on Index Levels; Bullish on USD..”

Leave a comment

MarketsMuse Editor Note: Below comments from this a.m.’s edition of “Sight Beyond Sight” were among several that jumped off the page..

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

“..Conversely, Technology has moved to the “Weakening” from “Leading” quadrant and Healthcare is now exhibiting the same early stage relative weakness as Technology. The takeaway is that there is a clear rotation into defensive strategies and for the first time in a very long while the leadership (Healthcare/Technology) is the source of funds. Thematically, 2014 has been “a market of stocks instead of a stock market….So the question that needs to be asked is whether a sector rotation has the ability to finally break the SP500 index level range….”
“..We are becoming increasingly negative about the US index levels for the first time in a long while…and we believe that the USD will begin to appreciate..”

Produced by macro strategy think tank Rareview Macro LLC and authored by Neil Azous, Sight Beyond Sight is a daily newsletter that has become a “must read” for leading fund managers and sophisticated investors..Free 2-week trial (without need for providing credit card info!) is a brilliant way to become introduced to the firm’s insight and content. The archive section for the publication is available via this link to the SBS website.

ETF News

June ETF Short Report: ‘Q’s’ Shorts Drop 42%

Leave a comment

Courtesy of Olly Ludwig

Short-sellers last month significantly cut their bets against an array of the broadest U.S. stock indexes, which looks quite sensible in the rearview mirror considering both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrials average rallied by nearly 4 percent in June.

While financial markets are again on tenterhooks over the dismal fiscal situation in Europe—and Spain’s in particular—last month marked something of a respite from the three-year-old eurozone debt crisis, as short interest on non-U.S. stocks fell as well.

Most conspicuously, the number of shares short on the PowerShares QQQ Trust (NasdaqGM: QQQ), the Nasdaq 100 ETF, dropped 42.6 percent in June, compared with a nearly 9 percent rise in the prior month. The decline left short interest on the “Q’s” at 10 percent of the ETF’s outstanding long float, compared with more than 18 percent at the end of May, according to data compiled by IndexUniverse.

Shorts on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SPY) meanwhile fell by almost 23 percent in June, compared to a 13 percent jump in May. Also, short interest on the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (NYSEArca: IWM) fell by more than 7 percent last month, after holding about steady in the prior month.

Dark Clouds Ahead? Continue reading →

ETF News

Popular ETFs You Should Never Use..

Leave a comment

  Courtesy of CNBC..By: Lee Brodie

Exchange traded funds are among the more popular ways to trade. Called ETFs on the Street they allow investors to diversify risk through a basket of stocks.

A pro like trader Steve Grasso of Stuart Frankel who works on the floor of the NYSE, can barely move a foot or two without hearing “Buy the XLF or get me out of the GLD, now!’

But these and other popular ETFs may not always be your best bet.

According to Matt Hougan, IndexUniverse president of ETF analytics, there are alternative ETFs that aren’t as widely known, but may actually better serve your needs. He profiled five of them on CNBC’s Fast Money. They follow:

Sector      Widely Traded
Gold                  GLD

Hougan’s Alternative: IAU

Looking at the GLD, Hougan says the IAU  holds exactly the same thing. “It’s plenty liquid and owning it is about half the cost of the GLD.”

Sector         Widely Traded
Financials                XLF 

Hougan’s Alternative: IYF

Hougan says this is something of a popularity content. “People know the XLF .” However, the XLF only tracks large caps. (Click here to see top holdings on Yahoo! Finance.) If you want exposure to the entire banking sector Hougan recommends the IYF  for “the full spectrum.” Continue reading →

ETF News

ETF Fund Flow: Trumping Mutual Funds

Leave a comment

According to technology and trading firm ConvergEx Group, during the first 6 weeks of 2012, more than $8 billion has flowed in to U.S. Equity ETFs, while nearly $8 billion has “flown out” of U.S. equity mutual funds.

“Some of the commentary surrounding these products has made them sound like the hoof beats which precede the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse,”  said Nicholas Colas, ConvergEx’s Chief Market Strategiest, alluding to various critiques of ETFs that have emerged over the past 18 months, notably Kauffmann Foundation reports that blamed ETFs for a dead U.S. initial public offering market, and argued huge short interest in some funds could pose systemic risk.

“If you want to understand how investment capital flows play into the year-to-date rally for risk assets, the world of exchange-traded funds is essentially your ‘One Stop Shop,’” Colas said in the note, stressing that whatever negative comments are being made about ETFs, they are a great way to gauge overall sentiment in financial markets.

“But for 2012, you can just as accurately call them the most visible source of capital to help U.S. stocks and other risk assets higher,” Colas wrote.

Most Popular Funds

As far as the individual funds that have really “Killed it” in year-to-date asset gathering this year-to-date, Colas said the ETFs that have pulled in over $1 billion include:

  • iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (NYSEArca: HYG)
  • iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSEArca:EEM)
  • iShares Russell 2000 Fund (NYSEArca:IWM)
  • iShares $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSEArca: LQD)
  • Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca:VWO)
  • Powershares QQQ (NasdaqGM QQQ)
  • SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEArca: JNK)
  • SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD)

Apart from the strong push into U.S. equities, Colas said emerging markets and precious metals are coming back into favor, with inflows of $9.1 billion and $2 billion, respectively.

”We’ve noticed a trend now for at least a year where investors use country-specific funds in lieu of regional products,” Colas said, singling out a number of those funds that have gathered more than $100 million dollars in new investments since the start of the year.

Among those are:

  • iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (NYSEArca: FXI)
  • iShares MSCI China Index Fund (NYSEArca: MCHI)
  • iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (NYSEArca: EWG)
  • Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEArca: RSX)
  • iShares MSCI Chile Index Fund (NYSEArcaECH).

“I have no doubt that mutual fund flows will eventually turn positive, and we’ll have to keep an eye on this trend when it develops,” Colas said.

“But for now, exchange traded funds look to be the horse pulling the market’s proverbial cart.”