Tag Archives: euro

A Euro-Surprise Is On The Way..A Rareview Global Macro View

Marketsmuse.com blog update courtesy of extract from a.m. edition of Rareview Macro LLC’s “Sight Beyond Sight”, the global macro trading investment newsletter favored by the industry’s leading hedge funds, investment managers and the world’s most savvy self-directed investors.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro
  • -FOMC Meeting: Best Wishes
    -Swiss National Bank (SNB) Meeting
    -Singapore: The First Derivative of China and Crude Oil

Firstly, FINalternatives was kind enough to publish our thoughts on what we believe are the main forces driving the economic cycle in Europe right now, the supply/demand conundrum in European bond markets, and why Bund yields could rise even while the Euro exchange rate falls. This is not a trading piece or a recap of recent events but an analysis to show how a mix of history and the implementation of monetary policy will combine to generate accelerating growth in Europe. It is basically the culmination of the views that we have been outlining to you since mid-January. If you’d like to read it, you can find it here: A Euro-Surprise Is On The Way And It Is Not What You Think It Is. Continue reading

Investors Reach For Euro ETFs as the US Dollar Recovers

MarketMuse update courtesy of MarketWatch’s 12 March article, “Dollar surge has investors scrambling for a piece of this European ETF”. From the National Swiss Bank’s huge announcement in January to Greece’s continued demise, the European market has seen better days. While the US market continues to recover, the US dollar has almost completely recovered to the being equivalent with the Euro which is making investor grab at Euro ETFs. 

Back in 2008, $1.60 bought one euro EURUSD, -1.10% Fast forward to today, and the U.S. dollar is surging toward parity with the hobbled currency. Just a few more ticks to go.

Of course, the huge currency shake-up is bad news for U.S. exporters but it’s great for investors in the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity fund HEDJ, +0.19% And they are throwing gobs of money at it. Read: 4 stock plays that are attracting investor dollars this year.

In the past year alone, $12 billion has flowed into the fund, a more than tenfold increase. The ETF is now the biggest covering Europe with almost $14 billion in assets, according to ETF Database. That’s enough to displace the Vanguard FTSE Europe giant VGK, -0.85% as the region’s top dog.

Olly Ludwig, managing editor for ETF.com, points out that the dollar’s rise has turned a neutral investment into a world beater.

“There’s an elegant mirror-like quality to the chart that isolates the currency factor rather cleanly,” Ludwig said. “Were it not for the currency hedge, HEDJ would be about flat.”

Investors have obviously been taking notice, and currency-hedged ETFs, in general, have seen spikes in asset growth. Ludwig pointed out that, on Monday alone, HEDJ and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity fund DXJ, -0.39% combined to attract $1 billion. In a single day.

For the entire article from MarketWatch, click here.

Greece ETF Crumbles to Ruins

MarketMuse update is courtesy of Business Insider’s Sam Ro

MarketMuse has previously reported on the volatility the Greece elections created early this year now even more problems have ensued for the country. Following the the European Central Bank’s announcement that it lifted its waiver on minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by Greece, Greece’s ETF crashed leaving just ruins left.

The Greek stock market closed hours ago, but the exchange-traded fund that tracks Greek stocks, GREK, crashed during the final minutes of trading in the US markets.

The euro is also getting walloped, falling 1.3% against the US dollar.

This comes following bad news from the European Central Bank (ECB) to Greece’s debt-laden banks.

Shortly after 3:30 p.m. ET, the ECB announced that it lifted its waiver on minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by Greece.

To put it another way, Greek banks can no longer exchange their junk-rated sovereign bonds for cash.

“The waiver allowed these instruments to be used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations despite the fact that they did not fulfill minimum credit rating requirements,” the ECB said in a press release. “The Governing Council decision is based on the fact that it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the programme review and is in line with existing Eurosystem rules.”

“In other words, the ECB doesn’t see Greece complying with existing bailout rules,” Bloomberg’s Lorcan Roche Kelly explained.

However, it’s not all bad. The ECB has another way for Greek banks to exchange their securities for liquidity. The cost of borrowing will however be higher.

“Liquidity needs of Eurosystem counterparties, for counterparties that do not have sufficient alternative collateral, can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, by means of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) within the existing Eurosystem rules,” the ECB said.

“The move from the ECB today is a copy of the suspension of Greek debt that occurred in February 2012,” Kelly noted.

“For Greek banks, this move by the ECB will not directly be a disaster as they have reduced their exposure to the Greek sovereign since 2012 and so are less reliant on that debt as collateral,” Kelly argued.

Still, it appears to be more bad than good. And judging by the reaction in the currency and equity markets, investors and traders were hoping for better.

For the original article, click here.

ETF Investors Have Regret Following the Swiss National Bank’s Announcement

MarketMuse update courtesy of Tom Lydon from ETF Trends. This update acts as a follow up from one of yesterday’s posts.

Thursday’s biggest financial market headlines came courtesy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which opted to drop the franc’s peg to the euro, a move that sent the Swiss currency soaring and Swiss stocks to one of their worst one-day performances on record.

The CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSEArca: FXF) easily Thursday’s top performing non-leveraged ETF with a gain of over 17% on volume that was nearly 34 times trailing three-month daily average. SNB’s decision to do away with the franc’s euro peg was a surprise, particularly because it conflicted with recent rhetoric from the central bank, which indicated SNB was looking to defend the EUR/CHF peg.

Forex traders and ETF investors alike were caught off-guard.

“Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed net short positions of 24,171 contracts on the Swiss franc, the largest since June 2013. Adding in 662 short option contracts gives a combined position of 24,833 contracts or $3.5 billion at the current rate of around 0.90 franc to the dollar,” according to Reuters.

Regarding ETFs, the iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWL), the largest U.S.-listed Switzerland ETF, lost almost $27 million in assets since the start of 2015 heading into Thursday while FXF was light by almost $5 million. The First Trust Switzerland AlphaDEX Fund (NYSEArca: FSZ), a smart beta spin on Switzerland ETFs, had not lost or taken in any money since the start of the new year.

Those numbers are not staggering, but fourth-quarter outflows from Switzerland ETF paint a better picture of investors missing out on Thursday’s Swissie surge. In the last three months of 2014, investors pulled nearly $198 million from EWL and $113.5 million from FSZ.

With gold prices languishing and the dollar surging, investors also did not stick around to wait for a franc rally and pulled almost $10 million from FXF. Of course it is with the benefit of hindsight and few if any traders could see a 17% one-day move coming for a currency ETF, but investors that left equity-based Switzerland ETFs missed out on EWL surging nearly 4% and FSZ climbing 3.7% Thursday.

Some former gold ETF investors also missed. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca:GLD) lost $3.2 billion in assets last year and has bled another $115 million to start 2015, but a sustained rally by the franc could ameliorate that situation.

On Thursday, GLD, the world’s largest gold ETF, climbed 2.5% on more than double the average daily volume to reclaim its 200-day moving average for the first time since September.

For the original article from ETF Trends, click here.