MarketsMuse.com Global Macro update is courtesy of opening excerpt from 14 April a.m. edition of “Sight Beyond Sight”, published by global macro trading think tank Rareview Macro LLC and authored by Neil Azous.
The Range Trade in US Equities, Fixed Income, and Dollar Continues
SBS Model Portfolio Update
April 10, 2015 COB:+0.72% WTD, +1.04% MTD, +0.71% YTD
We walk in today with little inspiration and struggle to see where a fresh appetite for risk will come from.
The US dollar is back in its trading range relative to the euro. US fixed income is back playing ping pong between October and December for the first rate hike. A lot of bears want to argue that a trade below 2079 in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures opens up 2% more downside. We have sympathy for that view, especially considering that would be a very early referendum on earnings, and likely impact sentiment further. Our first thought is that we may just be incrementally re-pricing the very low index volatility backdrop seen at the end of last week which was highlighted by so many.
Additionally, we have seen these prices and that range many times in the recent past, so for today it’s the same thing as saying “My aunt has a cat.” By which we mean, ”Who cares?”So for now we will just direct you towards some data points we are watching and go back to working on ideas that are not predicated on whether a stock market goes up or down.
To read the entire a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight, including a refreshing analysis of the Dow Theory, please visit their website via this link. (Subscription required; Free Trial is available)