Tag Archives: trading strategies

ETF News, Strike Price

Traders Wipsawed, The Tape Doesn’t Lie; Stock Prices Will Go Higher Before Lower:

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Rareview Macro LogoBelow courtesy of Rareview Macro;  MarketsMuse Editor caveat: Below is excerpt of independent opinion courtesy of contributor, this should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any type of securities.

Portfolio Update

The short position in the S&P 500 was covered and a long position was initiated yesterday at 1705. Our global equity beta position now consists of long US S&P 500, German DAX and Japan Nikkei. Into 1705, the strategy demonstrated the relative outperformance of our global beta thesis.

Also, with a US Government resolution now looking closer, a second unit of the long Mexico Peso against short Japanese Yen (MXN/JPY) position was added.

Both updates were sent real time via Twitter. Details are below for reference.

We are now outright directionally long on risk assets and our exposure is at the highest level of the year.  Neither is common in our portfolio, but we believe it is right at this time. We also remain confident that Gold will be significantly lower by the end of the year.

Note the US Dollar relief rally has started. This is most visible in Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold. Our view is that Dollar strength will be the shortest lived relative to the Euro. Today’s move lower in Gold is most welcome and upon Government resolution one has to be open to 1200 being tested on the downside.

Sight Beyond Sight is a subscription service provided by Rareview Macro. For the entirety of today’s update and to subscribe to a free 30-day trial (NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED), please visit http://www.rvrmacro.com 

 

People Profiles, Strike Price

Laszlo Birinyi Now Says “Equities Markets are Headed…

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Courtesy of Jeff Sommer, New York Times

THE economy may be lurching into another crisis, but you wouldn’t know it from the stock market, where an epic party is under way.

Yet this effervescence belies some ominous developments in politics and the economy. After the State of the Union address by President Obama on Tuesday — and the negative reaction to it among many Republicans in Congress — it seemed quite possible that $1.2 trillion in automatic government spending cuts might begin in just a few weeks, delivering yet another blow to an already lackluster economy. Most economists had expected minimal growth this year, even without a new shock from Washington — or from Europe or anywhere else.

These apparently conflicting pictures pose a quandary for market strategists. Which signals should an investor emphasize: the signs of disharmony in Washington and the negative indicators for the economy, or the upward trend of the stock market?

For Laszlo Birinyi, the veteran strategist and longtime market bull, the contest isn’t close. He says he starts by assuming that the market is smarter than any analyst. “We focus on the market itself, on what it is actually telling us,” he said.

In September 2009, when very few strategists were overtly bullish, Mr. Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, the stock market research firm in Westport, Conn., told me that we were in the early stages of a classic bull market. That analysis was prescient. The S.& P. 500 has returned more than 50 percent since then.

In a conversation last week, he said we were Continue reading →