Tag Archives: neil azous

The US Dollar – Novus Ordo Seclorum

Below excerpt courtesy of Hedge Fund Insight

Nov 17 2014 by Neil Azous Managing Member of Rareview Macro LLC

Most of us hand over dollar bills every day without ever really looking at them very closely. They are too familiar. But if you pause to look closely at the one dollar bill, you will see, right below the one-eyed pyramid, the Latin phrase “Novus Ordo Seclorum”.

The literal English translation of that is “a new order of the ages.” Taken from a book by the Roman poet Virgil, it first appeared on the Seal of the United States, and made its way onto the currency in 1835, where it has stayed ever since. Virgil was not a man to use words carelessly, so when he wrote it, he must have intended to emphasize “new” and, therefore, put it first in the sentence and in front of “ordo.”

A few readers might find that a slightly esoteric digression into Roman and monetary history, of little relevance to the markets today. In fact, they would be wrong. We started with that overlooked phrase because, over the second half of 2014, the professional investment community has come to believe that the US Dollar has indeed established a “new order” and the trend is now here for “the ages”. Continue reading

China Marts Open For Lunch & Dinner: ETFs Hot Menu Item; Fortune Cookie Reviews Say: “Sweet, Sour & Soggy”

chinesemenuA MarketsMuse special update, courtesy of compiling various columns from Bloomberg, ETF.com, Fortune and a special treat: this piece was sponsored by Mr. Chow’s! (see below)

After much fanfare, the “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect” is officially connected and ostensibly, this will be the link between brokers, dealers, ETF Issuers and global investors seeking access to a menu of mainland China stocks and bonds, whose market value is more than $4.2tril (if anyone knows another acronym for ‘Trillion”, please email us or simply comment below!). Even if trade volumes during the first 2 days appeared soggy (which some attribute to aversion to MSG, not China stocks or ETFs), this is a story that, according to many experts, is a watershed moment.

Noted Neil Azous, principal of global macro strategy think tank, Rareview Macro LLC,  “This is a transformational event. Though the first day ‘scorecard’ indicates that retail/local investor support in Shanghai has proven successful out of the gate, institutional interest is still nascent, as evidenced by the big drop in Hang Seng share prices yesterday.” Added Azous, “Because the liberalization of markets is 1 of 4 key anchors to China’s long-term game plan, it is easy to expect that the opening of China markets to foreign investors might be incremental, but also integral to the evolution of the global financial marketplace.”

Below please find a collection of excerpts and ETF mentions that MarketsMuse has ‘cherry-picked’ from news outlets: Continue reading

neil azous-global-macro

Global Macro Trading Update: Euro Short-Covering Inspires US Dollar Profit Taking

MarketsMuse coverage courtesy of out takes from a.m. edition of commentary produced by global macro trading guru Neil Azous, principal of macro-strategy think tank Rareview Macro LLC.. Editors Note: Aside from the prescience of “Sight Beyond Sight” outlooks throughout the past year (including select/specific and since successful trade ideas i.e. FX, Commodities (e.g. gold) and equities, Rareview’s process is uniquely aligned with the fundamental thesis embraced by the very smartest investors re macroeconomic investing: “mitigate exposure to risk, capture alpha in a conservative way, and never stay married to a position, particularly when the herd of wannabees comes to the party just when it seems like the main course has been consumed and coffee and desert are just starting to be served. 

Risk in Very Near-Term is a Euro Short Covering Rally…Closed Core Long US Dollar Positions

 A Lot of Importance Being Assigned to this Weeks US Inflation Data
 Federal Reserve Following Bank of England a Clear Talking Point
 Model Portfolio Update – November 14, 2014 COB: +0.27% WTD, +0.70% MTD,+17.57 % YTD

A Euro exchange rate short covering rally is the greatest risk going into the end of the week. The speed and degree of that is yet to be determined but our expectation is the Euro-Dollar (EUR/USD) will trade above 1.27 and if the US CPI on Thursday disappoints many investors will find themselves in a very difficult position.

After getting long on the US Dollar before the consensus on July 3rd we have reduced 100% our long exposure this morning. The following updates were sent in real-time via Twitter:

 Sold 1180 DXZ4 at 87.61.

 Sold 100% of USD/CHF at .9590.

The combination of our outperformance, lack of inspiration and our confusion over where the market will go next are the main reasons for that decision.

US Equities: Lower Is More Likely Than Higher: A RareView Global Macro View Point

Below is excerpt from opening lines of today’s edition of “Sight Beyond Sight”, the macro-strategy commentary courtesy of Stamford, CT-based think tank Rareview Macro LLC. Our thanks to firm principal Neil Azous for the following observations.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Model Portfolio Update:   Significantly Reduced Equity Net Long Exposure

Our inspiration level today is almost as low as the price of gold – that is, close to touching a low for the year.

We are struggling to find a meaningful macro catalyst or new top-down theme. None of the specific ideas we have analyzed recently are an “A Trade” and we will not deploy them ourselves, or ask you to either. The risk-reward in the short-term in many consensus themes are up 1 and down 2, not the profile of up 3 and down 1 that in the past we have always looked for.

In fact, we are finding that the psychology that has driven us all year is dissipating and for the first time we are more concerned about giving back performance in the model portfolio than generating further profits.

In the absence of a new opportunity, and following a period of healthy outperformance, a dilemma has arisen for us – markets/positions by nature mean revert. Now everyone has their own metric they watch for,  and their own threshold for the mean reversion in their portfolio to start with. But let us just say that ours has been breached and it has served us well in the past to pay attention to that.

Now that may not be the case for many of you, and if we were in your position there is little question we would be pursuing the same ideas/themes in order to catch up with our benchmark. For today, we have little to offer you. However, like the Homebuilder seasonality and beta observation made yesterday (reminder BZH reported this morning and is in small cap basket we presented), we will continue to highlight ideas as and when they arise.

So in that spirit, we significantly reduced our net long equity exposure. Continue reading

Professional Traders Lining Up to Sell SPX For the Wrong Reasons: Be Wary of the Good Idea Fairy: A Rareview View

Below commentary is courtesy of extract from a.m. edition of today’s Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”

A Simple View:  US Dollar, Gold, SPX, UST’s

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

The objectives we have laid out continue to materialize across the themes we are focused on.

The Q&A session with President Mario Draghi following today’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting has concluded. We will leave it to the people with PHDs to debate the intricacies of what he had to say. But if price is the voting machine that always tells you the truth, then the weakness in the Euro exchange rate highlights that the press conference was simply dovish. Expect these same PHD’s to keep chasing as they lower their price targets again.

As evidenced in our most recent editions of Sight Beyond Sight, there was little doubt that Draghi would not strike a dovish tone. With his emphasis on a unanimous vote for further action if necessary and formally adding in the notion that the ECB’s balance sheet will return to 2012 levels (i.e. ~1 trillion higher), Draghi did a good job of walking back the negative tone that the media have tried to portray over the last 48-hours, especially the speculation about an internal battle/dissent/revolt building up against Draghi.

For us, it was never about whether the professionals sold the Euro after the event. They were going to do that anyway as the trading dynamics continue to point towards the Euro buckling under its own weight regardless of what Draghi says. Instead, we were more focused on a short covering event not materializing ahead of tomorrow’s US employment data and that has been largely removed for today.

So those bearish have to contend with the following factors: Continue reading

Global Macro View: The Best Bet Based On Mid-Term US Elections, Traders’ Pattern Recognition and Plain Smart Thinking

Global macro trading perspective courtesy of Rareview Macro Nov 3 edition of Sight Beyond Sight. MarketsMuse Editor Note: Rareview Macro’s model portfolio has gained 16.5% YTD, during which time the majority of macro-style funds have returned less than 5% on average, illustrating why this newsletter is more than just a newsletter.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

We start with the global benchmark for beta and risk – the S&P 500. The debate amongst professionals is focused on two big issues:

  1.  An expectation that seasonality will override any negative factors.
  1.  There is historical precedent for consolidation and/or weakness. If weakness were to become the overriding theme, then it could be longer and deeper than expected because a series of market studies that looked at the speed and degree of the recent gains show a poor risk/reward profile in the near term.

So which is it?

After speaking with 10 investors in our circle, all of whom we respect, the current score is that 7 would side with seasonality being the overriding factor and 3 are calling for a 5% pullback in the S&P 500 and expect the market to remain range bound for the remainder of the year.

Personally, we struggle with this debate and the 7-3 scorecard. We pride ourselves on not being dogmatic in our views, especially around bulls, bears, inflation, deflation or simplifying our model portfolio into two polar viewpoints. This is particularly true given this stock market is well-known for behaving in unprecedented ways.

What we would say instead is this: Continue reading

Blood On The Streets; Buy The Bounce? A Sensible View…

Below extract from this a.m. edition of “Sight Beyond Sight”, the global-macro strategy insight courtesy of Stamford, CT-based, macro strategy “think tank” Rareview Macro LLC

Blood on the Streets Provides Counter-Trend Trading Opportunities
• Our 30,000 Foot Takeaways
• Model Portfolio Update: Closed EUROSTOXX and Dow Jones Index Short
• Model Portfolio Update: Opened Long S&P Structure
• Model Portfolio Update: Opened Eurodollar Interest Rate Steepener
• What Makes the Bounce Durable?
• Trading the Bounce
• US Equities Risk Profile for Next 48-Hours
• Watch List: Sugar, BRL/JPY and Nickel

Blood on the Streets Provides Counter-Trend Trading Opportunities

Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying that “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” Since he ended up as one of the wealthiest men in the world at that time, he probably knew what he was talking about.

The objectives we laid out for risk assets have largely materialized. We would humbly point out that we were able to navigate these waters in the model portfolio fairly successfully, losing less than ~35 basis points on the week so far. With our large outperformance it is our intention to take advantage of the blood on the streets, as Rothschild would have done.

We wish we could say the same for others but our conversations are plagued with horror stories. Now, if we rub salt in someone’s wound or pinch the nerve of an investor that is just too bad. If that is you, then don’t read this edition. This is not us being cavalier. If we are wrong on some views or ideas we will keep an open mind and change our opinion, and will then simply reduce risk and move on. Continue reading

Junk Bond ETFs: SOS for HY Sector ($USO, $XOP, $JNK, $HYG)

etf-logo-finalBelow extract is courtesy of Oct 13 edition of ETFtrends.com and senior editor Todd Shriber

The United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) is off 6.4% in the past month as West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark oil contract, ominously descents to $80 per barrel.

Oil’s slide has wrought havoc for futures-based ETFs, such as USO, as well as scores of equity-bae funds with energy sector exposure. After a 9.5% third-quarter loss, was once the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 earlier this year has now turned into one of the worst groups. [Dour View on Energy ETFs]

Of the 25 worst-performing exchange traded funds over the past month, 12 are equity-based energy funds. However, weakness in the energy sector could be problematic for some an asset class some investors may not be overlooking as a victim of energy’s slide: High-yield bonds and the corresponding ETFs.

Booming production at the Eagle Ford Shale and other shale formations has helped make Texas the envy of large state economies. That same theme has also been viewed as one of the more favorable long-term catalysts for ETFs ranging from the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSEArca: XOP) to the Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF (NYSEArca: FRAK), but oil’s decline is threatening producers ability to profitably tap North American shale plays. [Fracking ETFs Foiled by Slumping Oil Prices]

“Texas is the anchor to shale production, employment growth, positive real estate trends, and overall positive moral. With Crude Oil at or below the cost of production for many project, the State with the highest economic multiple needs to contract,” said Rareview Macro founder Neil Azous in a research note.

But there’s more, including the threat falling oil prices pose to the high-yield bond market. Continue reading

Puzzle Palace: What’s a Smart ETF Investor Supposed To Do Now?? Here’s a Rareview..

If this week’s volatility has unnerved you, take a deep breathe, sit back and consider the following assessments courtesy of global macro strategy think tank Rareview Macro and extracts of this a.m. edition of “Sight Beyond Sight.”

The Puzzle

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Today’s edition is not meant to be read as us preaching a gospel. Instead it is a collection of the thoughts we have gathered through a number of recent meetings/conversations with investors who take plenty of risk, and it has served us well in the past to just write down what people we respect are saying. Therefore, if at times the opinions below come across as too skewed one way or adopt the tone of a “bomb thrower” just take them with a grain of salt.

In the end, our biggest issue is that it is just a matter of a few hours to a couple of days before all investors catch up and put together a similar puzzle.

That is why you should read this entire edition even if it is lengthy and the only morning note you read. Continue reading

9.7% YTD Return for Macro-Strategy Portfolio v Industry Avg 4.1%

 MarketsMuse Editor Note: We tip our hat to the folks at Rareview Macro LLC, whose ‘sightings’ we have been allowed to cite courtesy of extracts from that global macro strategy think tank’s daily newsletter Sight Beyond Sight… Why? When eyeballing the 18 Sept edition, our staff noticed that Rareview’s model portfolio has, on a YTD basis, produced a 9.7% return vs. a 4.1% average return YTD for hedge fund managers according to HFR’s 8 September report, considered a leading source of hedge fund industry analytics.

For those following only the best strategists and analysts, below are extracts from yesterday’s Sight Beyond Sight:

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

“……So while the strategy will be to remain long the US Dollar vs. the G5-G10, it will also be to take profits on emerging market and commodity currencies, including short-term and option gamma related positioning. The carry trade will return to being protected because the slope of the curve in the US Dollar move will be measured for the time being. It is important to note that many emerging market risk assets have already been though a 5-10% correction leading up to the FOMC meeting and many commodity benchmarks have broken down to new lows, including the ones with the riskiest and highest beta profile (see below Top Overnight Observations)….”

Continue reading

Blind dedication to Loss Aversion secures AUM

MarketMuse.com post made possible through FINalternatives.com and Neil Azous

FINAlternativesLogo

 

The 2008 financial crisis exposed institutional money managers to a range of risks for which they were not prepared. Some of these were market risks, in which the value of their investments declined more than they had previously imagined possible. Some of these were liquidity risks, in which still-viable strategies gated their funds, thereby preventing investors from getting their money out. Finally, some of these were operational risks, in which the demise of Lehman Brothers and the Madoff scandal highlighted the importance of factors such as accounting, compliance, and infrastructure, as well as just performance when it came to choosing a fund.

In the wake of a traumatic loss, whether it is financial or personal, it is just human nature to overcompensate to make sure the experience is not repeated. But while that is understandable, it is rarely the best response. And so it has proved for many hedge fund investors over the past few years. While one could argue that each of the investor responses highlighted above has damaged investment performance, this article will focus on one specific issue:  the cult of loss aversion in global macro investing. Continue reading

Macro Musing: Brother, Can You Spare A Dollar? $DXY A Rareview Sight Beyond Sight

Below courtesy of extract from a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”…   MarketsMuse Editor note: notwithstanding the ‘caveat’ immediately below re: focus on FX, for those who are chewing on Apple ($APPL), MarketsMuse editorial team recommends a full read of below

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

An astute friend and mentor once said: “Deciphering the tea leaves of macro is an art developed over time, not purchased in an online tutorial”. In our humble opinion, today’s edition of Sight Beyond Sight is a good example of reading the tea leaves.

The majority of today’s note is related to Foreign Exchange but has implications across all assets going forward. If you are not a dedicated FX investor and not interested in making or saving money read no further.

On a risk-adjusted return basis the overall trading ranges across regions and asset classes are narrower than normal. This is prime example of indecision or neutrality after a strong relief rally in risk assets, especially in Equities.

The one outlier is the US Dollar, which continues its march higher towards regaining its status as an “asset” currency once again. The US Dollar is stronger relative to 9 of the 10 currencies in the G10.

The Dollar-Yen (USD/JPY) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) both broke key technical levels overnight – the Yen as a result of Japan’s trade deficit widening by more than expected, on an unexpected rebound in imports, and the Kiwi because of another disappointing milk auction that will weaken the country’s Terms of Trade, as well as negative Producer Price Index (PPI) data, and a growth downgrade by its Treasury yesterday.  Continue reading

Macro-Strategist Speaks Out Re Summer Sleepiness?: A Rareview with Sight Beyond Sight

Below extract courtesy of this a.m. edition of Rareview Macro LLC’s daily publication “Sight Beyond Sight”

Editor Note: Performance Speaks Louder Than Words, and the SBS model portfolio as of Aug 15 is a noteworthy +3.72% YTD (and 0.33% WTD) when compared to the universe of macro strategists who, according to news media, have been struggling (whether because of mis-timed moves, over-reaction to events, or completely missing the geo-political mark)

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Many in the professional community have rebalanced their long positioning out of Europe or remain short on it against another region. The underbelly of the macro strategy is very weak and many are forgetting that unless the inflation metrics really weaken from here, there are multiple steps that will need to be taken before full-scale European style QE can be introduced. That means part of the recent spread compression, where investors bought on the view QE was imminent, needs to come out of the market. The same can be absolutely argued about Gold, since the backdrop of relative peace and the traditional correlation of the metal to Brent Crude Oil should bring the price down.

Interestingly, this de-escalation of risk is not a result of diplomacy by any party to the Ukraine or Iraq conflicts. Instead, it is the result of ongoing military progress on both regions. Continue reading

A Rareview View: Small vs. Large Caps: $SPY/$IWM

Below is excerpt courtesy of 07.29 edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”

Small vs. Large Caps

Below are two charts of the ratio of the S&P 500 (symbol: SPY) to the Russell 2000 (symbol: IWM).

The first chart shows the performance of the ratio (i.e. long SPY vs. short IWM) on the top each time the relative strength index (i.e. 14-day RSI) reaches ~70. This ratio is currently overbought.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Going back to 2009 there have been ~10 points in time where the RSI reached ~70 (i.e. overbought) using the standard 14-day period. The average gain in the ratio is ~7.7% vs. the current gain at 6.6% off the July 2014 low.

The second chart shows the Fibonacci retracement levels following the GFC. The 61.8% FIB level is 1.2%. That happens to coincide with the average gain (i.e. ~7.7%) of the last 10 times that coincided with a ~70 RSI.

Courtesy of Rareview Macro's Sight Beyond Sight 07.29
Courtesy of Rareview Macro’s Sight Beyond Sight 07.29

We have placed an order to buy $20 million of IWM and sell short $20mm of SPY at this 61.8% retracement level. Out stop is the 76.4% retracement level which is ~2.7% above the 61.8% retracement level. That would equate to a loss of ~$540k or ~50 basis points of the NAV. As a reminder, we refer to 50 basis points as one unit of risk.

Continue reading

A Rareview Macro Strategy View: US Dollar and China

Below excerpt from July 25 edition of “Sight Beyond Sight” is courtesy of Rareview Macro LLC

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Overnight Commentary Strongly Centered on US Dollar, China, and NASDAQ

  • US Dollar
  • China – Operation Fox Hunt
  • NASDAQ

US Dollar

In the July 16th edition of Sight Beyond Sight we doubled the long US Dollar index exposure in the model portfolio and highlighted a number of catalysts for further US Dollar strength. As a reminder, the current position is long 500 U.S. Dollar Index Futures (Symbol: DXU4) for an average price of 80.4425 (original 80.28 on July 3rd + addition 80.605 on July 16th). We also hold a position of long Dollar/Swiss (USD/CHF) which helps better balance the European exposure in the basket. Collectively, if prices hold the long US Dollar position will generate about ~50 basis points of positive PnL this week.

We do not take victory laps in this newsletter as there are plenty of misses as well. We highlight this to emphasize that a long Dollar position can provide strategies that are lagging in performance with an opportunity to claw back. Additionally, this is an asset class that can absorb large inflows and no one is long in any material way currently.

Here are three most current US Dollar talking points – Structural, Technical and Data.

The consensus amongst paid forecasters with respect to the European structural backdrop continues to build. Morgan Stanley yesterday joined Nomura’s #1 ranked foreign exchange strategy team in holding this view. MS said “There were three main EUR-supportive flows that drove EUR/USD beyond what interest-rate differentials would suggest over the past two years: (1) foreign buying of peripheral bonds, (2) foreign buying of equities, and (3) official sector reserve diversification into EUR. We think all three flows are slowing and will continue to do so over coming months, leading EUR to trade more in line with macro fundamentals.” Continue reading

Semiconductor ETFs: Having Sight Beyond Sight; Look Out Below?

Below extract courtesy of today’s a.m. edition of macro-strategy commentary from Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”

1. Taiwan equities were cut to equal-weight from over-weight at Morgan Stanley (Jonathan Garner) on valuation concerns.
2. Morgan Stanley recently cut Asia’s semiconductor industry to equal-weight from over-weight.
3. Maybank, a local house, cut Taiwan Semiconductor (symbol: 2330 TT) to sell from hold. This is currently the only sell rating on TSMC.

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

If it were not for Russian equities falling on account of the new round of sanctions the Taiwan Taiex (symbol: TWSE) would be showing the largest negative risk-adjusted return in equities for the second day running. Taiwan Semiconductor closed down -4.6% last night. Taiwan Semiconductor holds a ~12% weight in the Taiex. This is a dramatic fall as it is not considered a high beta stock.

Compounding the matter further the Asian weakness followed on from Sandisk dropping by 10% after-hours due to a poor earnings release. We are not going to pretend that we know anything much about Sandisk, except that that it makes memory cards, but what we do know is that the professional community leaned very long into this earnings event. Furthermore, this follows the short-covering in Intel (symbol: INTC) that these same investors who are very overweight semiconductors used as a funding leg (i.e. short position) to pay for them. We still cannot believe Intel is/was the most heavily shorted name in the Dow Jones Index given its 35% run higher. That is a lot of PnL pain to endure, to the point where you have to truly believe your longs are going up even higher to make up for it.

The other issue is this profile: Continue reading

A Rareview Macro View: “There’s NO Gold in Them Thar Hills”

It was in early 1849 that the director of the Mint at Dahlonega, Dr. M. F. Stephenson spoke from the steps of the mint building in a futile attempt to convince the miners to remain in Georgia to mine rather than to flock to California to chase what might be an impossible dream. “There’s gold in them thar hills, boys,” he shouted as he pointed at the hills surrounding Dahlonega.   

Below commentary is courtesy of today’s a.m. edition of Rareview Macro’s “Sight Beyond Sight”

 

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Gold is showing the largest negative risk-adjusted return across regions and assets.

The pre-market price in SPDR Gold Shares (symbol: GLD) is ~126.40. The volume-weighted-average-price (VWAP) from June 19th until last Friday’s close is 127.0392.

We use June 19th as the starting point because that is when the IRAQ-ISIS conflict registered its loudest decibel level and Brent Crude Oil made its high and Gold broke above the April-May period.

The technical support levels are illustrated below but the first one was breached so far on an intra-day basis. A move closer to 1300 would suggest longs just became trapped. Continue reading

Markets Mauled Today: A Rareview Macro-Strategy View

Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC
Neil Azous, Rareview Macro LLC

Below excerpt courtesy this a.m.’s edition of macro-strategy newsletter “Sight Beyond Sight”

Today is the first time in recent memory that investors are waking up to a meaningful gap down in US equity index futures.

By virtue of the fact that S&P 500 futures were down ~1.0% at one point this morning, the 57-day streak with no 1% up/down move in the index level has finally been broken today and that is clearly a talking point.

The other interesting observation for US equity participants is that Russell 2000 futures (symbol: RTAU4) are currently down -2.2%. That is much more than the German DAX -1.6%) and commensurate with the weakness in the Spanish IBEX (-2.5%) and Italian MIB (-2.15%) indices.

Given that investor sentiment is also very fragile at the moment, and despite this being a very immature approach to investing and nearly always misguided, the fact is a 2-3% move lower in the index always triggers calls for a larger 7-10% correction.

Our view is different. Continue reading