MarketsMuse Editor Note: We tip our hat to the folks at Rareview Macro LLC, whose ‘sightings’ we have been allowed to cite courtesy of extracts from that global macro strategy think tank’s daily newsletter Sight Beyond Sight… Why? When eyeballing the 18 Sept edition, our staff noticed that Rareview’s model portfolio has, on a YTD basis, produced a 9.7% return vs. a 4.1% average return YTD for hedge fund managers according to HFR’s 8 September report, considered a leading source of hedge fund industry analytics.
For those following only the best strategists and analysts, below are extracts from yesterday’s Sight Beyond Sight:
“……So while the strategy will be to remain long the US Dollar vs. the G5-G10, it will also be to take profits on emerging market and commodity currencies, including short-term and option gamma related positioning. The carry trade will return to being protected because the slope of the curve in the US Dollar move will be measured for the time being. It is important to note that many emerging market risk assets have already been though a 5-10% correction leading up to the FOMC meeting and many commodity benchmarks have broken down to new lows, including the ones with the riskiest and highest beta profile (see below Top Overnight Observations)….”
……Secondly, the rotation within US equities will continue and in some cases accelerate. Despite the fact that there is already a wide and well observed divergence in the marketplace, there will be an even greater emphasis on distinguishing between a corporation’s onshore and offshore revenues….
…Additionally, there is a much higher probability that companies with a high growth multiple will continued to be called into question into the end of the quarter. Look at the new economic projections below, which were released yesterday by the FOMC. The paid forecasting community is already debating this clear and distinct disconnect between the higher “Dots” profile and the economic projections. The key point here is that the “Dots” should follow the latest economic growth trajectory, which was actually reduced for the next three years. …”
Sight Beyond Sight is a global macro strategy newsletter authored by Neil Azous and published by Rareview Macro LLC. For additional information, please visit https://www.rareviewmacro.com